As the baseball industry and several massive fan bases eagerly wait to find out which team will sign superstar outfielder Juan Soto, there has already been significant movement in another part of the free-agent market: starting pitching. This dynamic was also in play a year ago, when Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Luis Severino all signed before December’s winter meetings, but last winter saw two of the market’s top starters, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, have their free agencies stretch all the way to March. We’re a long way from knowing which, if any, of this year’s top free-agent arms will remain unsigned as spring training camps open, but the early movement suggests a steady stream of rotation additions could be on deck in the coming weeks.
Excluding Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki — whose market is entirely different due to international amateur bonus rules — Yahoo Sports’ Top 50 free agent list featured 19 starting pitchers. Five of them — Blake Snell (No. 6), Yusei Kikuchi (No. 17), Nick Martinez (No. 19), Matthew Boyd (No. 35) and Frankie Montas (No. 50) — have already inked new deals. In addition, right-hander Michael Wacha, who was set to become a free agent and would’ve ranked in the middle portion of our list, agreed to a three-year, $51 million extension with Kansas City.
What have we learned in free agency so far?
So what can we glean from this initial batch of starting pitching additions? The early days of the offseason are ripe with speculation, but now we have some data points to work with. There are two primary things to note with these first few contracts: 1) the size and length of the deals relative to industry projections and expectations, and 2) which teams have already jumped at the chance to improve their pitching staffs and, by extension, which teams in need of rotation help still have shopping to do.
Let’s begin with the money. The winter started with Wacha’s extension to stay with the Royals and the 34-year-old Martinez accepting the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer from Cincinnati. Wacha’s deal made perfect sense, considering his reported comfort with the club and the $17 million average annual value was commensurate with that of a mid-rotation starter with a high floor. Perhaps Martinez could’ve commanded a larger total guarantee on a multi-year pact, but he opted to stay in Cincinnati, where he just had a fantastic year as a swingman, for a far larger AAV than he would’ve received otherwise. Neither of those two deals was especially surprising.
Next came Kikuchi, reeled in by the ultra-active Angels with a three-year, $63 million deal. Kikuchi hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Wacha over the past few seasons, but he has been durable and showcased more upside after being dealt to Houston in July. He’s also left-handed. This deal should be good news for another free-agent southpaw, Sean Manaea (No. 14). Like Kikuchi, Manaea was marvelous over the final few months of 2024, and his talent has tantalized teams for years, even when the results have been inconsistent. He’s only eight months younger than Kikuchi, and Kikuchi’s deal suggests that Manaea could be in for an even bigger payday than initially anticipated — perhaps a four-year pact with an even higher AAV.
Speaking of left-handers, Snell was the first big domino to fall when he agreed to a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers just before Thanksgiving. A year after spending the winter unsigned before agreeing in March on a short-term deal with the Giants that gave him another chance at the open market after 2024, Snell wasted no time finding new threads this time around. His mega-deal with the Dodgers — with heavy deferrals, of course — was more along the lines of what you’d expect for a two-time Cy Young winner, albeit a year later than initially planned.
Snell’s deal now helps inform what could be in store for the two other ace-level arms atop the market: Corbin Burnes (No. 3) and Max Fried (No. 7). At the outset of the offseason, Burnes seemed like the only starting pitcher who could realistically command a deal in excess of $200 million. But after Snell got a fifth year and a total guarantee above $180 million, maybe Fried, whose run prevention has been far more consistent and who is a year younger, can sniff the $200 million mark on a six-year deal. As the youngest of the ace trio, Burnes remains in strong position to land the rare seven-year free-agent deal for a starting pitcher, possibly even in the range of the $245 million deal that Stephen Strasburg signed after 2019.
After Kikuchi and Snell gave us our first glimpses at the top two tiers of the starting pitching market, deals for Montas (two years, $34 million with the Mets) and Boyd (two years, $29 million with the Cubs) broadened our understanding of what rotation arms might cost this winter. Montas is coming off a season with a 4.84 ERA in 150 2/3 innings, while Boyd made only eight starts (plus three in October) for Cleveland after signing midseason following his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Even so, each was able to land a multi-year deal with an eight-figure AAV. It’s clear the Mets paid Montas for what they believe he can be, not what he was in 2024, but it’ll be interesting to see if this deal says more about Montas’ perceived upside or the going rate for free-agent starters. It’s plausible that these prices bode well for the more accomplished arms ranked ahead of these guys on our list; $20 million-plus in AAV could be in play for more arms than previously thought.
There’s also a crucial common thread among Kikuchi, Snell, Montas and Boyd: None was attached to a qualifying offer, meaning teams did not need to surrender draft picks to sign them. It’s not that pitchers saddled with a QO won’t end up getting paid, but teams seeking starting pitching might first look to those without QOs to address their needs. If that’s the case, Jack Flaherty (No. 12), Nathan Eovaldi (No. 18) and Walker Buehler (No. 23) could be in position to sign sooner rather than later. Conversely, it might take a bit longer for teams to circle back to second-tier arms such as Manaea, Severino or Nick Pivetta, whose signings will require the forfeiture of a draft pick.
Which arms are still a bit of a mystery?
Beyond the QO vs. non-QO delineation, there are several portions of the starting pitching market that have yet to be revealed. The aforementioned group of 19 starters doesn’t include Jeff Hoffman or Clay Holmes, two of the top relievers available who are both reportedly being considered options to transition to the rotation. Last winter saw two such signings in Reynaldo Lopez and Jordan Hicks, and Seth Lugo made the same transition the year prior. Lugo and Lopez have both been smashing successes thus far, while Hicks was ultimately moved back to the bullpen in the second half of 2024. Perhaps Hoffman or Holmes charts a similar path with his next team, but projecting what those contracts might look like is a bit murky at this stage.
Another subset of free-agent starters whose markets remain cloudy are the elder statesmen on track for Cooperstown: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. While we can safely assume Kershaw will end up back with the Dodgers, Verlander’s and Scherzer’s landing spots are far less certain. The 41-year-old Charlie Morton is another veteran arm not on our Top 50 who is reportedly planning to pitch in 2025 and was more durable than Kershaw, Scherzer or Verlander in 2024 but doesn’t come with the same cachet.
We’ve also yet to hear much about 35-year-old Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, one of the most accomplished arms in NPB history who is looking to make the jump to MLB at a later stage of his career. All of these pitchers appear likely to land one-year deals, but it’ll be interesting to see what level of AAV teams feel comfortable committing to them, relative to guys such as Montas and Boyd.
One other starter who exists in something of his own tier — and thus is difficult to project based on the early action in the market — is Shane Bieber. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in April, Bieber is on track to return to a big-league mound at some point next summer. His upside — and how sharp he looked in the spring before he went down — is commensurate with the top tier of starters available. But the risk involved with any pitcher coming back from surgery, combined with the uncertainty about when exactly he’ll be ready to contribute in 2025, will certainly factor into teams’ calculus. That said, even an abbreviated amount of an ace version of Bieber is arguably more valuable than some of the pitchers ranked ahead of him on our list, suggesting that the right-hander could still command one of the higher AAVs of any starter, if even on a shorter-term deal.
Which teams have been active in the starting pitching market so far?
Regardless of the size and length of each contract, each successive deal for a starting pitcher reshapes the market to a degree by clarifying which teams are pursuing rotation additions. As the Dodgers have demonstrated to an extreme degree, you can never have too much pitching. But it’s also reasonable to assume that each team has a certain number of rotation spots it hopes to fill, and each addition brings it closer to fulfilling that quota. From that perspective, we can begin to adjust our expectations about which teams will remain aggressive in seeking rotation upgrades, compared to those that might turn their attention elsewhere.
Consider the teams that have already added. The Angels signed Kikuchi and veteran Kyle Hendricks, but if they’re serious about vaulting back into relevance — let alone contention — after losing 99 games in 2024, more upgrades on the mound are in order. The Reds retained Martinez and acquired Brady Singer via trade, so we can likely cross them off as a landing spot for another starter. On the other side of the Singer swap, it seems the Royals are content with backfilling Singer’s innings via internal candidates, especially after retaining Wacha. Like Cincinnati, Kansas City now seems to be seeking offensive reinforcements.
The Mets had a boatload of innings to replace with so many prominent arms from their 2024 team hitting free agency this winter, so Montas is merely the first of what is expected to be several rotation additions. The Cubs, meanwhile, are a more intriguing team to monitor, considering how their pitching staff currently projects following the Boyd signing. Five solid starters appear to be in place — Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad — but one could argue that Chicago should still be playing in the deep end of the free-agent pool for the likes of Burnes or Fried if it wants to make a statement this winter following several disappointing campaigns.
And then, of course, there’s the Dodgers. Leave it to L.A. to make the first big splash of the winter via Snell, but does that take them completely out of the mix to retain Buehler or Flaherty, two key pieces from their World Series run? It’s hard to rule things out completely with the Dodgers, but it sure seems like addressing the outfield and bullpen would be higher priorities. If so, that’s one fewer behemoth bidding for Burnes, Fried or even the next tier of available arms.
Which clubs still have work to do?
Each starter that comes off the board means one fewer option for the clubs still in search of rotation upgrades. Below are the teams to watch closely in the coming weeks, as they’re the ones that still have significant work to do.
Like the Mets, the Rangers had a ton of innings hit the open market; they will need to rebuild their pitching staff if they want to get back in the playoff mix in 2025 after a dismal title defense. The Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox all have ambitions of competing in 2025, but each has considerable uncertainty in the rotation as currently constituted. The Yankees could stand to beef up their rotation, too, though the bullpen looks to be a more obvious position of need. It’s also possible we won’t see Boston, Toronto or New York make any major moves until their collective top target, Soto, has made his decision, but where Soto lands could influence how aggressively each club pursues the top arms left on the market.
The defending AL Central champion Guardians are unlikely to retain Bieber, while Boyd — a key rotation cog for them in the second half — has already signed elsewhere. If Cleveland wants to avoid leaning heavily on its bullpen for a second consecutive year, its rotation needs to be addressed via external upgrades. The same can be said for division-rival Detroit, whose rotation beyond Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is relatively unsettled.
In the NL, San Francisco will need to replace Snell, among other roster upgrades, as new president of baseball operations Buster Posey looks to reestablish the Giants as contenders. Atlanta’s top trio of Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach looks formidable on paper, but substantial questions remain beyond them, and a reunion with Fried appears unlikely. And perhaps the Nationals will spend big on a pitcher as they try to transition out of rebuild mode.
We’re only one month into the hot stove season, but the starting pitching market has given us plenty to chew on. Some teams have already done their shopping, while others are weighing their options and preparing their bids. The pace should only pick up as the winter meetings commence next week in Dallas, with another wave of transactions primed to take place at MLB’s annual offseason gathering.
Remember, folks: We’re just getting started.
