BLOOMINGTON — IU football fans will be doing some scoreboard watching this weekend with the team firmly in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The No. 10 Hoosiers (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) need to beat Purdue this weekend, but it’s not the only result that will impact their chances of making the 12-team field.
Here’s a viewing guide for Saturday’s games that will have the biggest impact on IU’s playoff chances:
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No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson, noon (ESPN)
Why it matters: The in-state rivals are making a late push for a playoff spot with Clemson nipping at IU’s heels.
This would give the Tigers the signature win they badly need after losing the two toughest games on their schedule to Georgia and Louisville. This matchup against South Carolina will also help them finish the season with a stronger strength of schedule than the Hoosiers and keep a path open to the ACC title game if Miami were to lose to Syracuse.
Indiana fans are better off cheering for the Gamecocks since it’s hard to imagine a scenario where IU gets jumped in the rankings by a three-loss team if they beat Purdue.
Is IU football on CFP bubble? Shakeup in rankings puts Hoosiers in danger zone.
No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Why it matters: Texas A&M has the chance to steal a spot in this year’s College Football Playoff from an at-large team.
The Aggies would clinch a spot in the SEC title game with a win over Texas and could earn an automatic bid the following week if they were to knock off a Georgia team that’s already clinched a spot in Atlanta.
It’s an uphill battle for Texas A&M to be sure, but it’s one of the few clear cut scenarios that would put IU’s playoff spot in jeopardy since Texas probably wouldn’t drop out of the top 12 at 10-2 and the committee is unlikely to punish Georgia for losing in the SEC title game, especially since SEC is considered the toughest power conference in the country. The Bulldogs also have the toughest strength of schedule in the FBS.
The SEC getting five slots in the 12-team field would likely send the Hoosiers to the Citrus Bowl.
No. 8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt, noon (ABC)
Why it matters: With no shot to make the SEC title game, a loss for Tennessee would sink the Vols’ playoff aspirations and prevent the above scenario.
While Vanderbilt hasn’t reached the same kind of heights as IU, the Commodores‘ turnaround has been just as surprising. They are a year removed from going 2-10 and played one of the toughest schedules in the country, but are already bowl eligible and knocked off Alabama.
Three of their five losses have come against ranked opponents and four of their five losses have come in one-possession games.
No. 5 Notre Dame at USC, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
Why it matters: Notre Dame has the worst loss of any power conference team (Northern Illinois) in the playoff field. The loss to USC wouldn’t knock the Fighting Irish out of the top 12, but it would give the Hoosiers a bit of a buffer.
The Maryland and Penn State game could be on the list for the same reason, but that game is unlikely to be competitive. Stranger things have happened, but the Terps have stumbled to the finish line having lost six of their past seven games all by double-digits including their past four.
They are 24.5 point underdogs this weekend.
California at No. 9 SMU, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Why it matters: It was a bit of a surprise to see SMU jump Indiana in the rankings last week considering the Mustangs had the second weakest strength of schedule (77 out of 134) in the field.
CFP committee chair Warde Manuel cited the team’s eight-game win streak as a key data point. SMU has beaten the likes of Louisville, Duke and Pittsburgh to clinch a spot in the ACC title game.
The Mustangs could earn an automatic bid into the CFP even if they lose to Calforinia, but back-to-back losses would put them at risk of falling out of the top 12, or at a minimum put them behind the Hoosiers.
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: What games have biggest impact on Indiana football CFP chances
