We’re back! It’s the race that stops the nation and, in 2024, it’s going to be another classic. Last year’s favourite Vauban returns — along with stablemate Absurde — hoping to improve on his underwhelming run in 2023, while Chris Waller’s Buckaroo is Australia’s best hope.
But there are plenty more races to sink your teeth into. Not sure who to back? Not to worry, as we take you through the best selections and some value runners in Tuesday’s 10-race card at the glorious Flemington racecourse.
TAB fixed odds correct as of 3pm AEDT, 4th November, 2024 (please visit tab.com.au for the latest).
RACE 1 – Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m), 10:45am
With less than half the field having race experience, I’m leaning toward siding with those who do, with Price Tag looking the best of them. She was solid on debut in the Darley Maribyrnong Trial Stakes, overcoming a slow start and traffic until the 300m mark to clock the fastest final furlong. She’ll face off again with Shining Smile, who finished ahead of her and was good on speed. Winmar and an unlucky The Opportunist both debuted in the debutant Stakes at Caulfield and can go well here. Among the newcomers, Military Tycoon and San Marco Kid look especially promising.
Top selections:
10. Price Tag ($3.20)
1. Shining Smile ($10.00)
2. Winmar ($10.00)
3. Bacash ($7.00)
RACE 2 – TAB Trophy (1800m), 11:20am
Plymouth wasn’t suited by a slow tempo on debut but was an eye-catching runner, as he was two starts back when winning a maiden at Bendigo. The pattern was against him again in his last start at Caulfield where he settled back in the field and did his best work late behind Treasurethemoment, who franked the form with an impressive subsequent win in the Group 2 Wakeful on Derby Day. He looks ready for the rise in trip. Imamanzor and Statuario also come out of that race and should both improve, the latter showing a blistering turn of foot when defeating Opening Address third-up at Cranbourne. Lavalier has raced keenly in his last two starts but is still posting impressive sectionals and finding the line well, gets Jamie Kah on and should get a soft run from the inside barrier. Kenmare Bay will take a heap of benefit from his last start third when savaging the line at Newcastle off a seven-week freshen up. Up in class but is a good chance here at decent odds.
Top selections:
8. Plymouth ($4.40)
5. Lavalier ($9.00)
6. Kenmare Bay ($12.00)
3. Statuario ($7.00)
RACE 3 – MSS Security Subzero Handicap (1400m), 12:00pm
Nothing wrong with the favourite Cloudland who is racing well but happy to be with Riot And Rose for the greys race. The gelding for the Moody and Coleman stable just got way too far back first-up but stormed home to record the quickest closing splits from the 400m. Simply didn’t handle the wet ground last start at Moe, maps well and only improves third-up and back on a firmer track. Mathletic and Stormfront the next best. French import Kengero off a spell can run a race at odds.
Top selections:
6. Riot And Rose ($5.00)
4. Cloudland ($2.30)
3. Mathletic ($6.00)
9. Stormfront ($7.00)
RACE 4 – The Schweppervescence Plate (1000m), 12:40pm
Aldolfito was too good for his rivals two back at Sandown in a race that should stack up here, while he has won down the straight at Flemington previously. Castellar didn’t mind a heavy track and made a mess of his rivals in a first-up win at Pakenham, and could be hard to beat if he produces something similar on top of the ground. Damehood was impressive when exploding down the outside and winning a maiden at Ballarat and can improve sharply. Faces tougher competition here but she looks a type that can measure up. Versaille resumes but is coming off two impressive jumpouts after making a strong statement on debut, as does Last Druid after a strong jumpout which produced the Coolmore Stud Stakes winner. One of the most open races on Tuesday’s program.
Top selections:
3. Aldolfito ($13.00)
17. Damehood ($8.50)
10. Castellar ($12.00)
18. Versaille ($6.50)
5. Winnasedge ($8.50)
RACE 5 – Australian Heritage Cup (2800m), 1:20pm
Kinesiology is an import making his Australian debut for Chris Waller. He would have been a live chance had he made the Melbourne Cup field off the back of his solid overseas form, and his potential makes him difficult to look past, although he is short enough in the market. Ahuriri won the VRC St Leger at this track and distance last prep before finding trouble at a key stage in the South Australian Derby behind the likes of Coco Sun and Warmonger at its next start, hitting the line strongly there once she finally got off heels. She was then unlucky in a Queensland Oaks and lost no admirers in her last start effort at Warwick Farm behind fellow contender Newfoundland. She can absolutely win this at big odds, as can Roaring Engine who deserves more market respect after running three-wide the trip behind Whisky On The Hill in his last start.
Top selections:
15. Ahuriri ($16.00)
7. Whisky On The Hill ($7.50)
4. Mr Waterville ($11.00)
10. Newfoundland ($4.80)
RACE 6 – Furphy Plate (1800m), 1:55pm
Café Millenium is a Randwick Guineas Group 1 placegetter, and was really good last start in the Filante Handicap when recording the fastest last 600m of the race despite needing to shift off heels to find clear running midway down the straight. Might need luck at a key stage from gate one but looks a key chance. Apulia had to bide his time around the bend at the Valley on his return from a spell but charged home once in the clear, and was unlucky not to win. Will strip fitter and appreciate the rise in trip.
Top selections:
10. Café Millenium ($9.50)
8. Apulia ($3.30)
9. Makram ($11.00)
5. Arran Bay ($7.00)
RACE 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m), 3:00pm
Starting with last year’s favourite, Vauban, who is fancied again and appears to be going as well as — if not better than — last year, entering with the strongest staying form in the field. Willie Mullins has openly admitted he got the preparation and tactics wrong in 2023, but it’s not uncommon to see a horse take out the southern hemisphere’s premier handicap on their second attempt — with recent winners like Without A Fight and Verry Elleegant winning a year after falling short. The Seven-year-old international was most recently second behind world-class stayer Kyprios in the Irish St Leger, following a win over 3300m in the Lonsdale Cup. He’ll stay, draws a great barrier, and will be able to sit behind a speed which this year should be even. Stablemate Absurde ran well in this race last year and looked the winner around the bend before peaking on his run. Won the Listed Chester Stakes at his last start, draws gate seven and gets three-time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy on board.
Buckaroo would be my top pick if not for the tricky wide draw, but he’s clearly the class horse and comes through all the right form lines. He placed second to Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes and followed that with a slashing Caulfield Cup run in just his second attempt at 2400m. Has a strong fitness base now but the two miles is a question mark, though his late sectionals in the Caulfield Cup suggest that 3200m might be within reach. Where he gets to in the run is critical, but if he runs the trip, he’ll be hard to beat.
Onesmoothoperator and Sea King couldn’t have been more dominant in their first Australian runs. Their UK form doesn’t necessarily stand out, but the eyes don’t lie, and proving they’ve acclimatised well to Australian conditions is the crucial first step towards success in this race. From barrier one, Sea King will need to jump well or risk being buried back on the fence, but is a major player if he doesn’t miss the kick. They can both win.
As for the best of the rest — Warp Speed lacks the dash required to win this but will love a dry track and getting out to two miles, ditto Interpretation who we know will be strong late and is the best roughie, Chris Waller has a knack for getting his horses peaking at the right time and Kovalica is one that may surprise many, possessing a nice turn of foot and coming out of good weight-for-age races, a hard fit Zardozi gets the economical run from barrier four, and Saint George is flying under the radar.
Top selections:
Vauban ($7.00)
Buckaroo ($7.00)
Absurde ($10.00)
Onesmoothoperator ($8.50)
Sea King ($13.00)
RACE 8 – The Amanda Elliott (1400m), 3:50pm
Big Swinger is two from two and could not look more enticing. He dropped them arrogantly in his last start win at Ballarat over 1200m following his equally-dominant maiden victory at the same track and distance. Should relish Flemington and 1400m, and gets a nice barrier. Stage ‘N’ Screen looks to have similar upside after a convincing win at Seymour on debut where he raced on speed and produced terrific sectionals when asked for an effort late. Given the right ride, Chewing Gum has the finishing burst to take this race.
7. Big Swinger ($3.20)
8. Chewing Gum ($10.00)
13. Stage ‘N’ Screen ($6.00)
10. Supernima ($17.00)
5. Extremely Hardys ($6.00)
RACE 9 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m), 4:35pm
Miss Aria was ridden for luck first-up at the Valley and held up from the 400m to the 100m before bursting through along the rail for an impressive win. She hardly runs a bad race as shown in her next two starts in the Blazer and the Tristarc and will be thereabouts again. Fortunate Kiss has hardly had an ounce of luck in its last three starts, gets a more suitable dry track and has value at big odds. Comrade Rosa ran well on the inferior part of the track second-up before another sound effort behind Uncle Bryn and Plenty Of Ammo in the Paris Lane Stakes on October 5, and will also appreciate getting back on firmer going, while Konasana posted the fastest last 600m and 200m in the Silver Eagle after settling back in the field in a race dominated on pace.
Top selections:
9. Miss Aria ($5.50)
10. Fortunate Kiss ($21.00)
4. Konasana ($7.00)
5. Aviatress ($3.50)
6. Comrade Rosa ($12.00)
RACE 10 – Channel 9 Trophy (1400m), 5:15pm
Snow Patrol won the Group 2 Autumn Stakes back in February and his two career wins have both been first-up. He resumes here as a key chance after a solid jumpout win alongside the favourite. Warnie fought hard to the line first-up to win at his first Flemington start and Australian debut. He’s won at bigger distances overseas so should be suited rising to 1400m here. Liked the work of Meridius in the Schweppes Handicap at Caulfield where he lost ground after an awkward start before running the quickest last 200m of the race. He’ll strip fitter for the run and has the in-form Blake Shinn in the saddle.
Top selections:
12. Warnie ($3.40)
14. Is It Me ($6.50)
3. Rheinberg ($4.60)
6. Amur ($18.00)
