More teams than ever have national title dreams in the second week of December.
The first 12-team playoff is less than two weeks away, as Indiana and Notre Dame will kick off the postseason on Friday, Dec. 20. A day later, the three other first-round games will take place ahead of the quarterfinals on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
At the moment, there are six teams that can legitimately call themselves contenders and six teams that are long shots. At least according to the betting odds. But you can make a case for any of the 12 teams in the postseason to win the College Football Playoff. Even if you have to squint a little bit.
Here is that case for each team in the field. (All betting odds are from BetMGM.)
No. 3 seed Boise State (+6000)
Why the Broncos can win it all: It doesn’t make much sense why Boise State is the biggest long shot at the moment. The Broncos get to play one fewer game than eight other teams and could potentially face a Georgia team without Carson Beck in the semifinals with a win over either SMU or Penn State.
No matter who Boise State plays in the playoff, it can argue that it has the best offensive player on the field in Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman finalist has rushed for 2,497 yards so far on 7.3 yards per carry — and nearly 5.5 of those yards come after contact. Only 66 qualifying players in college football average more overall yards per carry than Jeanty does after contact. He’s capable of posting a big game against anyone, no matter what the opposing defense’s gameplan is.
The Boise State defense is buoyed by a pass rush that can get after the quarterback in any number of ways. Four different players have at least five sacks and the Broncos have tallied 51 sacks as a team. A disruptive pass rush in big moments can change football games.
No. 4 seed Arizona State (+5000)
Why the Sun Devils can win it all: Like Boise State, ASU’s odds may be a bit too low as well because of their first-round bye. RB Cam Skattebo is a wrecking ball and one of the hardest players to tackle in college football. He made life miserable for Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game.
The offense wasn’t limited against the Cyclones despite the absence of leading receiver Jordyn Tyson as QB Sam Leavitt averaged over 10 yards per attempt. If opposing defenses load up to stop Skattebo without Tyson on the field, Arizona State is capable of getting chunk plays.
No. 12 seed Clemson (+5000)
Why the Tigers can win it all: There may not be a looser team in the field than Clemson. As numerous teams enter the playoff with title-or-bust expectations, Clemson is the only three-loss team in the field and is here because of a last-second 56-yard field goal in the ACC title game.
The Tigers’ offense is capable of going off, especially if the run game is functioning. If Clemson can rediscover what was working during the middle of the season, The Tigers are capable of surprising a few teams. The late season emergence of Bryant Wesco Jr. gives Clemson a serious deep threat. Wesco had eight catches for 143 yards and two scores against SMU and is averaging nearly 18 yards a catch.
The defense has also forced 12 turnovers in its past five games. The Tigers have a turnover margin of +16 for the season.
No. 11 seed SMU (+4000)
Why the Mustangs can win it all: Only five teams score more points per game than SMU at 38.5 and QB Kevin Jennings has emerged as one of the better QBs in college football. Jennings has thrown for more than 3,000 yards and eight different offensive players have at least 275 receiving yards. Even though TE RJ Maryland is injured, defenses can’t hone in one a single player in the passing game. RB Brashard Smith also averages nearly six yards a carry.
The defense is holding opponents to just 4.6 yards a play and opposing offenses have rushed for just 2.7 yards a carry. Only five teams have rushed for more than 100 yards in a game against SMU and Boston College is the only team to average more than four yards a carry at 4.2. That’s a good thing playing against Penn State and then potentially Boise State.
No. 10 seed Indiana (+4000)
Why the Hoosiers can win it all: Indiana has one of the best offenses in the country and has scored fewer than 31 points just twice all season. Yes, those games came against Michigan and Ohio State — the Hoosiers’ two toughest opponents — but Indiana will have had time to address those issues before the playoff. If they can be fixed, QB Kurtis Rourke can pick opposing defenses apart. He’s completed 70% of his passes and thrown just four interceptions.
The defense has been very effective stopping the run. That’s massive with a Notre Dame team that loves to run the ball and a Georgia offense that will likely be way more ground-oriented than it has been all season.
No. 9 seed Tennessee (+2500)
Why the Volunteers can win it all: The Vols could have the best defense in the SEC. James Pearce Jr. has 7.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss and leads a ferocious defensive line. Georgia is the only team to score more than 23 points on Tennessee all season and Vanderbilt — which returned the opening kickoff for a TD — is the only other team to break 20.
The offense has been very inconsistent, but RB Dylan Sampson is capable of breaking a game open. He’s rushed for 1,485 yards and 22 TDs. WR Dont’e Thornton is a big play waiting to happen too. He has 25 catches for 647 yards and six TDs.
No. 7 seed Notre Dame (+900)
Why the Fighting Irish can win it all: The Fighting Irish have evolved into one of the best teams in the country since losing to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame scores nearly 40 points per game and has a run game that averages over six yards a carry. Jeremiyah Love is likely to cross the 1,000-yard mark against Indiana and averages over 7.1 yards a carry. His No. 2, Jadarian Price, averages 7.3 yards a carry. QB Riley Leonard has been a dangerous rushing threat all season and has gotten much more comfortable as a passer as the season has gone on.
The defense is led by defensive back Xavier Watts. He has 49 tackles and a team-high five interceptions. Opposing offenses score fewer than 14 points per game in a unit that has displayed serious depth due to numerous injuries throughout the season.
No. 6 seed Penn State (+625)
Why the Nittany Lions can win it all: A healthy Nick Singleton helped Penn State to what could have been its best offensive performance of the season against Oregon in the Big Ten title game. The Nittany Lions rushed 35 times for 292 yards and averaged seven yards a play. Oh, and Tyler Warren is one of the few skill-position players capable of challenging Jeanty for the title of best offensive player on the field. Warren has over 1,000 yards receiving and has also rushed for four scores while throwing another.
Edge rusher Abdul Carter has 20 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. He’s a chore for anyone to block. Oregon was just the second team all season to have more than 400 yards of offense against Penn State and the only team to do it without overtime.
No. 8 seed Ohio State (+500)
Why the Buckeyes can win it all: The Buckeyes are probably the most talented team in the field and are more than capable of putting it together for four games and a national title with the motivation of a loss to Michigan. Will that happen?
A reshuffled offensive line will have had three weeks to practice as it opens holes for star running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka form one of the best receiving duos in the country and Will Howard is still completing over 72% of his passes this season.
They have the best scoring defense in the country at 10.9 points per game with 35 sacks. Defensive back Caleb Downs is also an impact punt returner. All the pieces are there for Ohio State.
No. 2 seed Georgia (+400)
Why the Bulldogs can win it all: The case for Georgia is a bit tougher without Carson Beck, but Gunnar Stockton will have three weeks of practice with the No. 1 unit assuming Beck is unavailable for the College Football Playoff. Georgia’s offense can be at its best with a power run game, and the time off will also help RB Trevor Etienne get healthier. WR Arian Smith has made big playoff plays before. This postseason is a prime time to break out of his recent slump.
The defensive line is capable of taking over games — just ask Texas. Potential first-round pick Mykel Williams has 20 tackles and five sacks, while linebackers Jalon Walker and Chaz Chambliss are tied for the team lead at 6.5. It’s hard to bet against a Kirby Smart-coached team. He’s 7-1 in SEC title games and the College Football Playoff against teams not coached by Nick Saban.
No. 5 seed Texas (+350)
Why the Longhorns can win it all: Texas has only lost to Georgia this season and wouldn’t have to face the Bulldogs until the national title game. Despite playing in the first round, Texas is now the co-favorite to win it all thanks to a defense that gives up 12.5 points a game; it is the stingiest in the country against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks are throwing for just 143 yards per game against the Longhorns. The 211 yards Kentucky’s Cutter Boley and Brock Vandagriff accounted for are the most against Texas all season.
A lack of depth hasn’t hurt the run game against teams that aren’t named Georgia — Texas has 55 rushes for 60 yards against the Bulldogs — and TE Gunnar Helm and WR Matthew Golden are very reliable targets for Quinn Ewers. Steve Sarkisian is also one of the most creative offensive coaches in college football and he’ll assuredly have more tricks up his sleeve to use with QB Arch Manning during the postseason.
No. 1 seed Oregon (+350)
Why the Ducks can win it all: The Ducks don’t get rattled in close games and are capable of blowing anyone out. Penn State was Oregon’s fourth one-score win of the season after a Week 2 win over Boise State, its one-point win over Ohio State and a three-point scare at Wisconsin. Dillon Gabriel is playing better than any QB in the country and is capable of beating teams with his legs too. WR Tez Johnson’s importance to the offense was on full display in the Big Ten title game as he ran through the Penn State secondary at will.
DE Matayo Uiagalelei has been a second-half force and leads the team with 10.5 sacks. Jordan Burch is back after missing four games and has 8.5 sacks in just nine games. They’re a fantastic edge-rushing tandem and Kansas State transfer Kobe Savage has bolstered the secondary with 61 tackles.
